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What History Teaches Us About Great Speculations

Right now, we are exiting the eye of the giant financial hurricane that we entered in 2007, and we’re going into its trailing edge. It’s going to be much more severe, different, and longer lasting than what we saw in 2008 and 2009.

financial crisis

In a desperate attempt to stave off a day of financial reckoning during the 2008 financial crisis, global central banks began printing trillions of new currency units. The printing continues to this day. And it’s not just the Federal Reserve that’s doing it: it’s just the leader of the pack. The U.S., Japan, Europe, China…all major central banks are participating in the biggest increase in global monetary units in history.

These reckless policies have produced not just billions, but trillions in malinvestment that will inevitably be liquidated. This will lead us to an economic disaster that will in many ways dwarf the Great Depression of 1929–1946. Paper currencies will fall apart, as they have many times throughout history.

This isn’t some vague prediction about the future. It’s happening right now. The Canadian dollar has lost 26% of its value since 2013. The Australian dollar has lost 29% of its value during the same time. The Japanese yen and the euro have crashed in value. And the U.S. dollar is currently just the healthiest horse on its way to the glue factory.

These moves show that we’re in the early stages of a currency crisis. But if you make the right moves, you could actually make windfall gains instead of suffering losses. Here’s how to do it…

The huge winner during this crisis will be the only currency that has real value: gold.

Gold has been used as money for thousands of years because it has a unique combination of qualities. Very briefly, it’s durable, easily divisible, convenient to carry, consistent around the world, and has value in and of itself. Just as important, governments can’t create gold out of thin air. It’s the only financial asset that’s not simultaneously someone else’s liability.

When people wake up and realize that most banks and governments are bankrupt, they’ll flock to gold…just as they’ve done for centuries. Gold will rise multiples of its current value. I expect a 200% rise from current levels, at the minimum. There are many reasons, which we don’t have room to cover here, why gold could see a 400% or 500% gain.

This should produce a corresponding bull market in gold stocks…perhaps of a magnitude we’ve never seen. A true mania for gold stocks could develop over the coming years. This could make anyone who buys gold stocks at their current depressed levels very rich.

What History Teaches Us About Great Speculations

Many of the best speculations have a political element to them.

Governments are constantly creating distortions in the market, causing misallocations of capital. Whenever possible, the speculator tries to find out what these distortions are, because their consequences are predictable.

They result in trends you can bet on. Because you can almost always count on the government to do the wrong thing, you can almost always safely bet against them. It’s as if the government were guaranteeing your success.

The classic example, not just coincidentally, concerns gold.

The U.S. government suppressed its price for decades while creating huge numbers of dollars before it exploded upward in 1971. Speculators who understood some basic economics positioned themselves accordingly. Over the next nine years, gold climbed more than 2,000% and many gold stocks climbed by more than 5,000%.

Governments are constantly manipulating and distorting the monetary situation. Gold in particular,
 as the market’s alternative to government money, is always affected by that. So gold stocks are really a way to short government—or go long on government stupidity, as it were.

The bad news is that governments act chaotically, spastically.

The beast jerks to the tugs on its strings held by various puppeteers. But while it’s often hard to predict price movements in the short-term, the long-term is a near certainty. You can bet confidently on the end results of chronic government monetary stupidity.

Mining stocks are extremely volatile for that very same reason. That’s good news, however, because volatility makes it possible, from time to time, to get not just doubles or triples but 10-baggers, 20-baggers, and even 100-to-1 shots.

When gold starts moving higher, it’s going to direct a lot of attention towards gold stocks. When people get gold fever, they are not just driven by greed, they’re usually driven by fear as well, so you get both of the most powerful market motivators working for you at once. It’s a rare class of securities that can benefit from fear and greed at once.

Remember that the Fed‘s pumping-up of the money supply ignited a huge bubble in tech stocks in the late 90’s, and then an even more massive global bubble in real estate that burst in 2008. But they’re still creating tons of dollars.

This will inevitably ignite other asset bubbles. Where? I can’t say for certain, but I say the odds are extremely high that as gold goes up, a lot of this funny money is going to be directed into these gold stocks, which are not just a microcap area of the market but a nanocap area of the market. The combined market capitalization of the 10 biggest U.S.-listed gold stocks is less than 29% of the size of Facebook.

I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again: When the public gets the bit in its teeth and wants to buy gold stocks, it’s going to be like trying to siphon the contents of the Hoover Dam through a garden hose.

Gold stocks, as a class, are going to be explosive. Now, you’ve got to remember that most of them are junk. Most will never, ever find an economical deposit. But it’s hopes and dreams that drive them, not reality, and even those without merit can still go up 10, 20, or 30 times your entry price.

And companies that actually have the goods can go much higher than that.

You buy gold, the metal, because you’re prudent. It’s for safety, liquidity, insurance. The gold stocks, even though they explore for or mine gold, are at the polar opposite of the investment spectrum; you buy them for their extreme volatility, and the chance they offer for spectacular gains. It’s rather paradoxical, actually.

Why Gold Stocks Are an Ideal “Asymmetric Bet”

Because these stocks have the potential to go 10, 50, or even 100 times your entry price, they offer something called “asymmetry.”

You probably learned about symmetry in grade school. It’s when the parts of something have equal form and size. For example, cut a square in half and the two parts are symmetrical.

Symmetry is attractive in some forms. The more symmetrical someone’s face is, the more physically attractive they are considered to be. Symmetry is often attractive in architecture.

But when it comes to investing and speculating in the financial markets, the expert financial operator eschews symmetry. Symmetry is for suckers.

The expert financial operator hunts for extreme asymmetry.

An asymmetric bet is one where the potential upside of a position greatly exceeds its potential downside. If you risk $1 for the chance of making $20, you’re making an asymmetric bet.

Amateur investors too often risk 100% of their money in the pursuit of a 100% return. These are horrible odds that the financially and statistically illiterate flock towards…the kind you find in casinos and most sports betting. It’s one of the key reasons most people struggle in the market.

I’ve always been more attracted to asymmetric bets…where I stand a good chance of making 10, 50, even 100 times the amount I’m risking. I’m not interested in even bets. I’m only taking the field if my potential upside is much, much greater than my potential downside.

Because of the extreme asymmetry gold stocks offer—because of their extreme upside potential—you don’t have to take a big position in them to make a huge impact on your net worth. A modest investment of $25,000 right now could turn into $500,000 in five years. It has happened before and it will happen again.

Right now gold stocks are near a historic low. I’m buying them aggressively. At this point, it’s possible that the shares of a quality exploration company or a quality development company (i.e., one that has found a deposit and is advancing it toward production) could still go down 10, 20, 30, or even 50 percent. But there’s an excellent chance that the same stock will go up by 10, 50, or even 100 times.

I hate to use such hard-to-believe numbers, but that is the way this market works.

When the coming resource bubble is ignited, the odds are excellent we’ll be laughing all the way to the bank in a few years.

No one, including me, knows that the Mania Phase is just around the corner. But I’ve operated in this market for over 40 years. This is a very reasonable time to be buying these stocks. And it’s absolutely a good time to start educating yourself about them.

There’s an excellent chance a truly massive bubble is going to be ignited in this area. If so, the returns are going to be historic.

If you believe that my message is worth spreading, please use the share buttons if they show at the top of the page.

Stephen Hodgkiss
Chief Engineer at MarketHive

markethive.com


Alan Zibluk Market Hive Founding Member

Trump has No Respect for Presidency Hefner

Trump has 'no respect' for presidency: Hefner

Cooper Hefner, son of Playboy founder Hugh Hefner, has grown tired of self-proclaimed "family friend" Donald Trump.

The 24-year-old Hefner argued Thursday that Trump, the Republican presidential front-runner, has "absolutely no understanding or respect" for the presidency. Earlier this month, Hefner called on young people to try to better understand politics and Trump's campaign.

"He sort of is rewriting the playbook for how every individual has gone about running their campaign. Most importantly, I think most of his policies are backed and supported by racist notions," Hefner, chief creative officer at media company Hop, told CNBC's "Closing Bell."

Cooper Hefner, son of Hugh Hefner

Tommaso Boddi | WireImage | Getty Images

Cooper Hefner, son of Hugh Hefner

The bombastic Trump has rolled to the lead in the GOP primary elections, racking up 683 delegates so far versus 422 for his nearest rival, Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, according to NBC News. Along the way, he has proposed policies that have irked minority groups, like building a wall along the Mexican border and temporarily banning Muslims from entering the U.S. due to terror concerns.

Hefner said Trump was one of many celebrities and business owners he met at his father's home growing up. While he knew Trump when he was younger, he has had little interaction with the mogul as an adult.

Hefner, who identifies as a Democrat, acknowledged that Trump is more popular with older Americans than people near his age. Regardless, he said he wanted to encourage young people to "start actually having a real dialogue and conversation about politics."

The Trump campaign did not immediately respond to CNBC's request for comment.

Jacob Pramuk | @jacobpramuk  CNBC


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Ida Mae Boyd
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Skype me at imboyd681
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Alan Zibluk Market Hive Founding Member

Could this delegate plan blow up the GOP?

Could This Delegate Plan Blow Up The GOP?

 CNBC

The Republican nomination process may be flipped on its head if a proposed amendment is passed just days before the convention, an amendment that is showing some support among party members.

Curly Haugland, a member of the GOP's standing rules committee, sent a letter to all GOP presidential campaigns and Republican National Committee members in November that he plans to present an amendment that essentially will allow any candidate who received a delegate to be placed back on the first ballot.

That means even candidates who have dropped out of the race could be considered for the nomination.

A voter receives a ballot at a polling place in Falls Church, Virginia.

Kevin Lamarque | Reuters

A voter receives a ballot at a polling place in Falls Church, Virginia.

"There will be eight candidates on the first ballot for the 2016 nomination for president," said Haugland, an unbound North Dakota delegate. "Those candidates worked very hard to win their delegates, and the voter deserves to have their vote count."

Haugland's amendment would replace Rule 40, which was passed during the 2012 convention that made it mandatory for any candidate who sought the GOP nomination to have the support of the majority of the convention delegates in eight states or more.

But Haugland said of his proposal: "This amendment would do the best job of honoring the votes of every voter participating in primaries or caucuses, because every vote that resulted in the allocation of a delegate to a candidate would be represented at the convention."

And Haugland has allies.

"Curly is right on this.The delegates have the power and ultimate authority in nominating the candidate. Not Priebus (RNC Chairman Reince Priebus) and the RNC," said A.J. Spiker, past state chairman of the Republican Party of Iowa and former senior advisor to Sen. Rand Paul's presidential campaign.

"The delegates can write any rule they want and pass it. They have that power. It's really a lie the Democrat and Republican establishments have pushed that the caucuses and primaries mean something. They don't. Just like the Electoral College decides who is the next president. It's the delegates who decide who the nominee is."

Haugland tells CNBC he did not write this amendment because he is "anti-Trump." It's about fairness and eliminating the big money influence in the nomination process. Haugland said the RNC lusts for money and is "hooked" on the primary process. "Big money wins primaries, and the RNC is selling these primaries and caucuses like commodities. We're talking about a half a billion dollars being spent in these contests. The money is going into the pockets of pollsters, pundits. … It's not right."

The RNC declined to comment to CNBC.

"The whole nomination process has been put on super steroids." agreed Gary Emineth, former chairman of the North Dakota Republican Party and an unbound delegate. "Curly's correct in that the process has been hijacked by big donor money and has broken away from the grass-roots movement. I can see why he wrote this amendment. We have become a party of special interests and money.

People are buying their way into office and they are blowing off the grass-roots organization which is what the Republican Party was built on. The party of Abraham Lincoln started out with people walking door to door and neighbor to neighbor encouraging people to join a philosophical belief to change their city, state, county and country."

Haugland stressed to CNBC,the rules to receiving the nomination are straight-forward, "There is no winner take all. No 1237. Republican rules forbid that. The nomination power rests in the hands of the delegates."

Riker agreed, saying the rules give the delegates the ultimate authority in deciding who the nominee would be, not the primary results, "If Trump fails to get the delegates by one delegate or even if he gets the so-called 'magic number,' the delegates can get together and throw him off the ballot if they wanted,"

Riker said. "If Trump is short that number I can guarantee you Trump will not get the nomination. He won't make it past the second ballot because he does not have the ground game at the convention."  

P.S.

Ida Mae Boyd
MarketHive Alpha Founder
Skype me at imboyd681
please include in the Skype Contact message "Market Hive"

    

Alan Zibluk Market Hive Founding Member

US Secret Service regrets delays to Gerry Adams’ visit to White House St Patrick’s event

US Secret Service regrets delays to Gerry Adams' visit to White House St Patrick's event

 

The American Secret Service has said it regrets delays which meant Sinn Féin leader Gerry Adams did not attend a St Patrick's Day reception at the White House.

Mr Adams was told there was a security issue when he attempted to attend the event in Washington DC on Tuesday night.

He waited for about 80 minutes before deciding to leave. The US Secret Service said administrative errors were to blame.

In a statement, it expressed its regret that the issue had not been resolved in a more "timely manner".

"Unfortunately, an administrative input error received by the Secret Service was not able to be rectified promptly," the statement added.

'Unacceptable'

Mr Adams had been invited to the annual shamrock ceremony which was hosted by President Obama.

He said he was subjected to "unacceptable and unprofessional" treatment.

As he tried to check in to the event, he was told a security issue had arisen.

His party colleagues, Martin McGuinness and Mary-Lou McDonald had already entered the celebrations.

"He (Mr Adams) stood to one side and he waited around, he waited around and he waited for something like between 80 and 90 minutes," said BBC News NI economics editor, John Campbell, who is covering events in Washington.

White House

Image captionWhite House staff stopped Mr Adams over an 'issue of security'

"By that stage I think people inside the room texted him to say President Obama had started speaking and at that point Gerry Adams decided that, well, he was going to leave.

"He wasn't technically refused entry but he was left hanging around for the best part of an hour and a half and then decided it wasn't worth his while staying any more, so he left."

'Treated differently'

Mr Adams said that he had been invited to the event and was "pleased to accept".

"When I arrived the staff at the White House informed me there was an issue of 'security'," he said.

"After two decades of travelling back and forth to the USA and countless meetings in the White House with successive US Presidents, this is an unacceptable development.

"It is obvious that there remain some within the US administration who seek to treat Sinn Féin differently."

Mr Adams added that Sinn Féin representatives had been denied entry or had to go through extra searches when travelling to the USA, while the State Department had also initially refused to meet him last year until "protest from US political leaders".

'Resolution'

"Sinn Féin will not sit at the back of the bus for anyone," he said.

"I am hopeful that the controversy around my White House invitation will help lead to a resolution to all these matters."

Gerry Adams

Gerry Adams said being stopped from entering the White House was an 'unacceptable development'

Mr Adams told the BBC that Sinn Féin representatives often face enhanced security checks but they normally do not "broadcast" it.

He said what had happened was "bad manners and not a good way to treat guests".

He said he had not been embarrassed by the incident, adding: "I just deal with this in a non-personal way."

Sinn Féin deputy leader Mary Lou McDonald said it was "ludicrous" for Mr Adams to be stopped at the White House for unspecified security reasons.

The White House has not commented.

This article is from BBC NEWS

P.S.

Ida Mae Boyd
MarketHive Alpha Founder
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Alan Zibluk Market Hive Founding Member

Popular Auto Responder Marketing Techniques

Popular Auto Responder Marketing Techniques

Marketing through auto responder series is a popular strategy to increase repeat website visits and sales. Here is a popular strategy.  

The power of an EZINE Book

Instead of trying to publish a small daily or weekly eZines, try publishing one large monthly eZine (similar to a monthly magazine) as an e-book format delivered via auto responder, preferably an Adobe .pdf file. You could have it made up of a large number of articles per issue and insert regularly featured areas throughout like inspirational quotes, industry tips, favorite sites and advice from the pros. You could also insert full-color graphics, multimedia components like audio / video file links and ads. Then you can charge a monthly rate, with an annual discounted package purchase, and sell advertising spots to sprinkle in your auto responder announcements for each issue and with an informational series to announce your monthly eZine to new prospects.

In summary, by using customized marketing techniques like an eZine eBook, tailored to fit your own products and services, you can reach out and increase your website traffic and sales opportunities. Internet marketing can mean more ways to grow your business.

Auto Responder Improvements!

Stuck in an auto responder rut with only your eZine going out regularly? Get out of the rut with some of these ideas for improvements.

1. Provide back issues of your eZine archives via your auto responder instead of hosting all your archives online. This will give your subscribers and web site visitors easy access to them and offers a chance to include graphics, audio and video and other components all rolled up in .pdf files for quick, easy download.

2. Help with tech issues and publish your entire web site, save it in a pdf file, and load it into an auto responder. Sometimes visitors don't have enough time read your entire site or they lose their Internet connection or time online. So this way, they could print it out and read it offline.

3. You could offer your eBook via an auto responder. Often your visitors won't have to download it or have the software to read it right away, so this way they can take it “to go”.

4. For a handy – -and nice legal – touch, you could include the terms and conditions to purchase transactions and load them into an auto responder that is triggered with each purchase. This could include return policies, purchases, refunds etc.

Autoresponder Two-Step process!

Top sales pros confirm that it often takes seven or more communications or sales messages before prospective customers make a purchase. They also confirm that it’s generally easier to sell to a referral, because someone they know gave positive testimonial about their products or services.

What would happen if you combined both of these powerful ideas? A nifty and thrifty two-step. Try this two-step tip:

1. Collect leads with your auto responder. Ask for mailing addresses and telephone numbers, too, for additional ways to follow up with each person. When you download the e-mail digest of everyone's e-mail addresses and other information from those who requested additional information from your auto responder, follow up multiple ways. Send postcards. Call. Mail sales letters and other promotional pieces.

2. Publish a price list of all the products and services that you offer in an insert, direct marketing package and / or .pdf to be made available via auto responder. You could also include order forms, product descriptions, and other sales material. Then send to the people in #1 above with monthly updates, announcements of new sales and products / services, and a request for referrals.

So why not improve your closing ratio and reach out even farther at the same time? Do the two-step!

Auto Responder Marketing Techniques

The Internet offers many means of affordable marketing with auto responders. Here are a couple more popular ways of using them.

Article Directories on your Own Domain
 
Some webmasters set up link or article directories on their sites. They create a directory on a specific industry topic, placing their own ad or banner along the top. Then they invite others to add their website links via a link exchange program, listing themselves in your directory. Or they invite articles to be submitted that include a resource box at the bottom of each with a link to the author’s website. This results on increased traffic as sites link up across the World Wide Web. Enter “link exchange software” or “article directory software” into a favorite search engine for help with each.

Teach a Course

Some marketers write up a simple step-by-step instructional class in their area of expertise. Then they break it up into smaller portions or messages and set them up in an auto responder as email messages, including short ads within each message to invite sales & website visits. Then they invite website visitors to sign up through on online form or email subscription address offered through the auto responder service. As people sign up, they will learn more about the products and services through the teaching series.

Improve your marketing and sales with some auto responder Improvements.

Here are some more techniques you can apply with auto responders :

1. Publish free reports to send via your auto responder. The reports should be related to your business or web site & contain info, ads and links to your sites. People love getting freebies.

2. Collect vital customer satisfaction information by publishing a survey to send via auto responder to those who sign up on your site in exchange for a free eBook, software or trial period at your membership site.  This type of information will help you understand their needs, likes & dislikes better.

3. Instead of answering each customer question that is e-mailed to you, publish "Frequently Ask Questions" and make them available via auto responder to those who sign up. To save time and support headaches.

4. Instead of publishing all of your customer testimonials or endorsements on your website, publish only a few there. And set up an auto responder form that invites visitors to receive a complete list via subscription. Give them a power-packed list; it's more effective to include all of them.

Mix and match. Change your auto responder strategy to change your auto responder results!

 

Alan Zibluk Market Hive Founding Member

We choose the nominee, not the voters: Senior GOP official

We choose the nominee, not the voters: Senior GOP official


Political parties, not voters, choose their presidential nominees, a Republican convention rules member told CNBC, a day after GOP front-runner Donald Trump rolled up more big primary victories.

"The media has created the perception that the voters choose the nomination. That's the conflict here," Curly Haugland, an unbound GOP delegate from North Dakota, told CNBC's "Squawk Box" on Wednesday. He even questioned why primaries and caucuses are held.

Haugland is one of 112 Republican delegates who are not required to cast their support for any one candidate because their states and territories don't hold primaries or caucuses.

Even with Trump's huge projected delegate haul in four state primaries Tuesday, the odds are increasing the billionaire businessman may not ultimately get the 1,237 delegates needed to claim the GOP nomination before the convention.

This could lead to a brokered convention, in which unbound delegates, like Haugland, could play a significant swing role on the first ballot to choose a nominee.

Most delegates bound by their state's primary or caucus results are only committed on the first ballot. If subsequent ballots are needed, virtually all of the delegates can vote any way they want, said Gary Emineth, another unbound delegate from North Dakota.

"It could introduce Paul Ryan, Mitt Romney, or it could be the other candidates that have already been in the race and are now out of the race [such as] Mike Huckabee [or] Rick Santorum. All those people could eventually become candidates on the floor," Emineth said.

House Speaker Paul Ryan, who decided not to run for the White House this year, said in a CNBC interview Tuesday he won't categorically rule out accepting the GOP nomination if a deadlocked convention were to turn to him. But on Wednesday, a Ryan spokeswoman said the speaker would not accept a Republican nomination for president at a divided convention.

 

Democrats experienced the last true brokered presidential convention to go beyond the first ballot in 1952. Republicans came close at their 1976 convention.

"The rules haven't kept up," Haugland said. "The rules are still designed to have a political party choose its nominee at a convention. That's just the way it is. I can't help it. Don't hate me because I love the rules."

Haugland said he sent a letter to each campaign alerting them to a rule change he's proposing, which would allow any candidate who earns at least one delegate during the nominating process to submit his or her name to be nominated at this summer's convention.

If the GOP race continues at the same pace, Trump would likely have a plurality of delegates. So far, he's more than halfway to the 1,237 magic number.

Trump split Tuesday's winner-take-all primaries in Florida and Ohio.

The real estate mogul dominated in Florida over Sen. Marco Rubio, who dropped out of the race after losing his home state.

But Trump lost Ohio to the state's governor, John Kasich. Trump also won Illinois and North Carolina. He held a slim lead over Texas Sen. Ted Cruz in Missouri early Wednesday.

Emineth, also a former chairman of the North Dakota Republican Party, told "Squawk Box" in the same interview that he's concerned about party officials pulling "some shenanigan."

"You have groups of people who are going to try to take over the rules committee," he warned. "[That] could totally change everything, and mess things up with the delegates. And people across the country will be very frustrated."

"It's important that the Republican National Committee has transparency on what they're doing [on the rules] going into the convention and what happens in the convention," he continued. That's because of "all the votes that have been cast in caucuses and primaries. Don't disenfranchise those voters. Because at the end of the day, our goal is to beat Hillary Clinton or whoever their [Democratic] nominee is in November."

Emineth said he's worried that frustration would discourage Americans in the general election from voting Republican.

CNBC's Lori Ann LaRocco contributed to this report.

Alan Zibluk Market Hive Founding Member

Donald Trump just hit a critical threshold

Donald Trump just hit a critical threshold for the GOP nomination — one that his opponents might not achieve


March 12, 2016 Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks during a campaign event
at the Arvest Bank Theatre at the Midland in Kansas City, Mo. Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post

The Northern Marianas are a collection of 15 islands in the Pacific Ocean, located at about the focal point of the Pacific Rim. It's a U.S. territory, 179 square miles of land — an area smaller than New York City — that happens to jut out above the surface of the water. And on Tuesday morning, before you even woke up, it made Donald Trump the first man to qualify for the Republican presidential nomination.

See, in the Northern Marianas, Tuesday began 14 hours before it began on the East Coast. So its Super Threesday caucus was done overnight, and Trump won all nine delegates. In doing so, the Northern Marianas became the eighth state or territory in which Trump won a majority of the delegates. (The others: South Carolina, Alabama, Georgia, Massachusetts, Tennessee, Hawaii and Mississippi.) And according to the rules of the Republican convention, a candidate must “demonstrate the support of a majority of the delegates from each of eight (8) or more states, severally, prior to the presentation of the name of that candidate for nomination.” No eight states, no nomination.

That's the fabled Rule 40, which governs how the nomination process works, down to the length of time allotted candidates who wish to speak about their nominations. The eight-state thing is in Section B of the rule, and it is a pretty high bar to meet. (The party’s rules count territories as states under Rule 1.) After all, it's not that Trump hasn't won at least eight states; he has. But only in eight (including the Marianas) does he have a majority of delegates. In the others he has won — New Hampshire, Nevada, Arkansas, Vermont, Virginia, Kentucky, Louisiana and Michigan — he has a plurality of delegates. Not good enough.

Notice that we’ve taken 16 states and territories out of play already. There are several more that other candidates have won with a majority of the delegates — Texas (for Ted Cruz), Kansas (Cruz), Maine (Cruz), Puerto Rico (for Marco Rubio), Idaho (Cruz) and D.C. (Rubio) — and more still that other candidates won, but didn't capture most of the delegates. Those are Iowa, Alaska and Oklahoma for Cruz and Minnesota for Rubio. Cruz needs four more and Rubio six more. (Oh and John Kasich, eight more.) And not many states are left.

In theory, then, Trump could be the only candidate to hit the bar before the July convention.

Of course, once the convention arrives, that doesn’t really matter at all.

As former Republican National Committee counsel Ben Ginsberg noted during an appearance on MSNBC last week, Rule 40 is not a hard-and-fast rule for the convention. The convention will have a Rules Committee in which 112 representatives will battle over the final guidelines for eligibility to receive the nomination. Rule 40’s eight-state boundary could become 25 states or two states. In 2012, in fact, the Rules Committee bumped it up from five to eight, which is why that’s where it stands right now. (The rules document notes that it dates from the 2012 convention, with a few updates by the party.)


Aerial view of Saipan Island in the Northern Marianas. (Paul Chesley)

Think of it like an NFL game. As the clock runs out on the voting, we think we know the winner. But before a winner is announced, the referees get to discuss how the rules will be applied. Maybe they decide that what constitutes winning is “most yardage gained by passing” — but that one of the team’s quarterbacks is ineligible for consideration. It’s a ridiculous example, but it’s not entirely inaccurate: The Rules Committee could make the nomination rules into nearly anything it wishes.

That’s not terribly likely, of course, both because there’s value in maintaining the integrity of the process for candidates and because any perception that the scales are being tipped away from Donald Trump probably would result in a very angry group of Trump supporters. But the rules can and probably will change to some degree.

None of this is meant as a slight on the importance of the Northern Marianas, of course. But, then, they’re all asleep right now anyway.

 

Alan Zibluk Market Hive Founding Member

China Warns, Japan Fears And George Soros Freaks Out As Donald Trump Continues End Times Rise To The Top


China Warns, Japan Fears And George Soros Freaks Out As Donald Trump Continues End Times Rise To The Top

On his very first day in office, president Donald Trump will send shockwaves around the world, not by doing anything, but just by being. From a prophecy perspective, this will immediately reset the table with every nation hostile to us, and with every nation that has gotten used to pushing around a second-rate America under the Obama reign of terror. For the first time since the reestablishment of Israel in 1948, there will exist the possibility that literally anything can happen. The entire global community is starting to realize that we are on the brink of huge, huge change.

In the last two weeks, Republican frontrunner Donald Trump has won more delegates in primaries and caucuses, even while his opponents have launched new attacks and questions have been raised about his supporters.

“And he changeth the times and the seasons: he removeth kings, and setteth up kings: he giveth wisdom unto the wise, and knowledge to them that know understanding:” Daniel 2:21 (KJV)

My friends, we are indeed living in the end times, and a Donald Trump presidency will be just the ticket. I believe with all my heart that God is getting ready to shake the world and I further believe that He is going to use Donald J. Trump as president to bring it about. Never before, either in my lifetime or in recorded American history, have we witnessed such a strong reaction to a candidate for president of the United States. Never before have so many world leaders chimed in to give an opinion on our election process. Shoot, even NWO puppet master George Soros is running scared and the millions to ‘stop Trump’ have already begun to flow.

Fellow Christians will ask me “how can you vote for Trump?” And I say back to them “are you KIDDING me? If you know and believe Bible prophecy, how could you not vote for Trump?”

On his very first day in office, president Donald Trump will send shockwaves around the world, not by doing anything, but just by being there. From a prophecy perspective, this will immediately reset the table with every nation hostile to us, and with every nation that has gotten used to pushing around a second-rate America under the Obama reign of terror. For the first time since the reestablishment of Israel in 1948, there will exist the possibility that literally anything can happen. The entire global community is starting to realize that we are on the brink of huge, huge change.

Did you read the headlines just today? Take a look:

  • Donald Trump’s rise sparks alarm in Japan: As polls open for US primaries in Ohio and Florida, the political elite in Tokyo is starting to confront a disconcerting idea: that their indispensable US ally could actually elect Donald Trump as president. The controversial businessman, now favorite for the Republican nomination, hits Japan regularly in his stump speeches for supposedly unfair trade practices and freeriding on US military protection. “To start with they just thought ‘he’s funny’,” said Masatoshi Honda, a professor of politics at Kinjo University. “But recently they’re starting to worry — what happens if Trump wins?” source
  • Trump opens Pandora’s box in US: Donald Trump, front-runner to be the GOP’s candidate for the upcoming US presidential election, encountered a major protest at his campaign event in Chicago on Friday evening. Over a thousand people, both his supporters and opponents engaged in a physical confrontation, which was quelled by police who arrested a number of people
  • Soros, Alarmed by Trump, Pours Money into 2016 Race: George Soros has expressed alarm over the past few months at the candidacy of Donald Trump. In a statement last week about a new group he’s funding to increase voting by Latinos and immigrants in the election, he again mentioned the candidate by name. “The intense anti-immigrant and anti-Muslim rhetoric that has been fueled by the Republican primary is deeply offensive,” Soros said in the statement. “There should be consequences for the outrageous statements and proposals that we’ve regularly heard from Trump.”

  • Trump breaks 50% in national support for the first time: In the last two weeks, Republican frontrunner Donald Trump has won more delegates in primaries and caucuses, even while his opponents have launched new attacks and questions have been raised about his supporters.  The week’s Economist/YouGov Poll finds Trump still at the top of GOP voters’ preference with a wider lead, while Florida Senator Marco Rubio seems most damaged by the two weeks of attacks and counter-attacks. This is the first time Trump has garnered the support of a majority of Republican primary voters nationwide. YouGov’s February 24-27 survey marked his previous high, at 44% support

As much as I dislike the failed Marxist policies of the Muslim-raised Barack Hussein Obama, I have always said on this website that I believe he became president so God could judge our nation. And He certainly has done that. Taxpayer funding for baby murder, forcing same-sex marriage on America, decimating the power of our military, and the list goes on and on. Now that the United States has been judged, I believe God is going to begin the process of shaking the entire world in preparation of the time of Jacob’s trouble. And America will be the ‘big stick’ He is going to use, with Trump as president.

These are the days of prophecy, there is no hiding place, nowhere to run to. Every night when I look up into the the eastern sky, I see in my mind’s eye the clouds parting, a shofar blaring, and a thunderous “come up hither!” reverberating across the ocean. If the time of Jacob’s trouble really is as close as it looks like it is, then that means that the Pretribulation Rapture, which naturally must come first, is closer still.


So Christian, when you vote, vote for the candidate that seems most likely to be used of God to advance the prophecy timeline. I want to see the God of Abraham, Isaac and Jacob shake this world to its very core, and I want a front row seat when it happens. You students of Bible prophecy will take note that America does not appear anywhere among the named nations of the world. There is no “revival” coming, there is no “kingdom to claim for Jesus” as one of the candidates believe.

“I will greatly rejoice in the LORD, my soul shall be joyful in my God; for he hath clothed me with the garments of salvation, he hath covered me with the robe of righteousness, as a bridegroom decketh himself with ornaments, and as a bride adorneth herself with her jewels.” Isaiah 61:10 (KJV)

It is my contention that the God of the Holy Bible is getting ready to set the entire global community on its ear. Don’t waste your time with politics! Start getting busy going out into the streets, handing out gospel tracts, and preaching the good news of salvation in Jesus Christ.

“Looking for that blessed hope, and the glorious appearing of the great God and our Saviour Jesus Christ;” Titus 2:13 (KJV)

Are YOU ready for what comes next?

originating article is here:
NOW THE END BEGINS


 

Alan Zibluk Market Hive Founding Member

Markethive Website Rotator

Markethive provides many tools for the Entrepreneur that works on-line; one of these is our very own URL Rotator. This can be found under the Campaigns Menu.

free url rotator

The Website Rotator tool allows you to configure a unique URL that will then rotate and display a list of other websites you define. You can use it to transfer traffic from one of your sites to several others. Or if you work with a team of people, the entire group can promote a single URL which will then automatically distribute the traffic to each member's individual website.

You can add an unlimited number of websites to each rotator. There are 2 different rotation types. Circular will simply rotate through each website, one by one. Shared Ratio allows you to weight certain URLs so they receive a certain number of visits before the rotation continues.

For those of you that have been using this tool here already, please take note of the new website address for our rotator. You will need to review them. Previously, it had been using the Markethive domain itself, which is never a good idea.

If you believe that my message is worth spreading, please use the share buttons if they show at the top of the page.

Stephen Hodgkiss
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Alan Zibluk Market Hive Founding Member

Losing Ohio Improves Trump’s Chances to Win the Nomination

Keeping John Kasich in the race divides the anti-Trump vote.

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks during a campaign stop at the Savannah Center, Sunday,
March 13, 2016, in West Chester, Ohio.
 

Two months ago, based on a computer model I developed of the Republican delegate race, I wrote in The American Prospect that the GOP’s nomination rules tilted the playing field to Donald Trump’s advantage. For Trump’s opponents, the time window for counteracting many of those advantages and winning a first-ballot nomination has passed. Now the campaign enters a new phase, as Trump’s rivals try to deny him a majority of pledged delegates going into the convention. Simulating the remaining contests based on current polling data, my model picks up an unexpected wrinkle: Trump’s strongest position comes if he loses the primary in Ohio on Tuesday.

Tomorrow marks the start of an onslaught of winner-take-all elections, which will continue for the rest of the primary season. A winner-take-all rule rewards the first-place finisher even without a majority, and therefore gives the biggest advantage when the field is divided. Two of the first winner-take-all elections take place in Florida and Ohio, the home states of Senator Marco Rubio and Ohio Governor John Kasich. Winning their home state would provide each of them not only with delegates, but also with the credibility they need for raising money and obtaining other support to continue as candidates. But if they survive, they will continue to divide the anti-Trump vote with Texas Senator Ted Cruz.

In 17 out of the remaining 29 state and territorial GOP contests, the rules will give all or nearly all of the delegates to the first-place finisher. My computer simulation for these races includes rules not only for statewide but also for congressional district-level delegates, which add complexity but make only a small difference. South Carolina has already provided an example of a state with both statewide and district-level rules. Trump still got all 50 of South Carolina’s delegates.

I estimated win probabilities for Trump using recent polling data where it was available. Where polls were not available, I assumed that individual states varied around the national median with a standard deviation of 16 percentage points, comparable to the 2012 primary season. I assumed that districts varied around the state average with a standard deviation of five percentage points, a typical amount for most states. I then converted these margins to win probabilities and delegates, and combined all 29 races using methods that I originally developed in 2004 to analyze the Electoral College.

We can test the effect of a divided field by simulating the outcome of having all the primaries as if they were held today and included all four of the remaining candidates: Trump, Cruz, Rubio, and Kasich.

The above graph represents a distribution of all possible outcomes. Where polls are available, Trump leads in eight of the nine states that vote between now and mid-April. I estimate that under these conditions, he should lose between two and four of the winner-take-all races and win a median of 804 newly awarded delegates. Combined with his existing 465 delegates, Trump’s total would be 1,269, more than the 1,237 needed to get a majority on the first ballot at the convention. The total might be smaller because of chance variation, as well as Cruz’s tendency to outperform his polls. So there is a chance Trump would need to pick up a handful of additional delegates, for example from Ben Carson, who has endorsed him. In this way, Trump could easily get the nomination with a majority of delegates, despite having the support of only 39 percent of Republican voters, as measured by national surveys. Indeed, my simulation indicates even if his support dropped across the board by 5 percentage points, he would still have an even-odds chance of getting 1,237 delegates. This victory builds on the 42 percent of delegates that he has obtained so far, based on getting 34 percent of the vote.

Most of the remaining primaries, however, do not happen tomorrow. This gives time for the consequences of the March 15 primaries to unfold, changing the picture substantially.

In Florida, Rubio lags Trump by a median of 14.5 percentage points. Assuming Rubio loses and leaves the field, more of his supporters should go to Cruz than to Trump. In exit polls for Michigan and Mississippi, Rubio voters preferred Cruz over Trump by a ratio of four to one, and an ABC-Langer national sample of Republican and Republican-leaning independents got a similar split. So Trump would gain Florida’s 99 delegates, but his future gains would probably be reduced thanks to Rubio’s absence from the race.

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A preview of the effects of a Rubio withdrawal can be seen in Ohio. In four Ohio polls spanning March 2 to 8, Trump leads Kasich by a median of six percentage points. Over the weekend, however, Rubio urged his supporters in Ohio to vote for Kasich, a strategic move that fulfills Mitt Romney’s recommendation to fight Trump by consolidating around the strongest candidate on a state-by-state basis. Rubio’s median support in Ohio is seven percentage points, and his supporters prefer Kasich or Cruz over Trump by a ratio of 12 to 1. So Kasich's position in Ohio may be quite competitive.

To assess the overall consequence of Rubio’s withdrawal, I redid the simulations after giving Ohio to Kasich and reassigning four-fifths of Rubio’s support in later states to Kasich and Cruz equally, with the remainder going to Trump. Under these assumptions, I calculate that Trump would gain a median of 724 delegates, to end up with 1,189 delegates in all.

Depending on exactly where Trump falls in the range of possibilities, to reach a majority he might have to gather additional support from a pool of more than 100 uncommitted and minor-candidate delegates. As more elections occur and better polling data becomes available, it will become clearer how many, if any, of these unpledged delegates he will need.

The aforementioned scenario, in which Rubio drops out and Kasich stays in, may be Trump’s best option. Perhaps counterintuitively, it is worse for Trump to win Ohio since that would likely cause Kasich to withdraw. In this scenario, Trump would be left in a one-on-one matchup with Cruz. National surveys from ABC/Langer and NBC/Wall Street Journal show Cruz leading Trump by 13 and 17 percentage points. A two-candidate race might not only leave Trump far short of a majority of delegates but also open up the possibility of Cruz ending up with the most delegates. 

To emulate the effect seen in those two surveys, I reassigned Rubio and Kasich's support to Cruz and Trump in a four-to-one ratio. This leads to the following distribution of outcomes.

In this scenario, Trump picks up only 548 new delegates, for a total of 1,013— barely 40 percent of delegates, far short of the necessary number for nomination. Failure to get a majority on the first ballot would then generate the open convention that has been the subject of so much speculation.

Even in this two-candidate scenario, Trump still has a shot at the nomination. Despite his record of racist, sexist, and inflammatory statements, culminating in the proto-fascism and violence of his rallies, many Republicans regard him as the lesser of available evils. Some Republican insiders see the ascendancy of Cruz as more damaging to their party in the long run.

We are therefore left with an odd situation. Many Republicans who oppose Trump and Cruz are desperately hoping for Kasich to win Ohio, an outcome that Kasich himself certainly wants so that he can stay in the race. But Trump also should hope Kasich wins Ohio, since a decision by Kasich to keep fighting keeps the field divided, offering Trump himself the best chance of getting a majority of delegates and ultimately winning the nomination. The only candidate who should not want Kasich to win Ohio is Ted Cruz.

 

From The American Prospect

Alan Zibluk Market Hive Founding Member